Wildfires often leave behind a second wave of threats — mudslides, flash floods, and water contamination — and NASA is working to give communities advance warning with its new online tool HydroFlame.
Supported by NASA’s Earth Science Division and built with partners including the University of Texas at Arlington, Purdue University, and the U.S. Geological Survey, the tool combines satellite data, hydrologic modeling, and artificial intelligence to predict how fires may affect water supplies, from tap water to rivers and fisheries.
“As wildfires intensify across the country, so do their ripple effects on regional water resources,” said Erin Urquhart, program manager for NASA’s water resources program, in a statement. “HydroFlame could help communities in the U.S. see what’s coming and plan for it, before a fire becomes a water crisis.”
HydroFlame is being piloted in Montana’s Clark Fork Basin, with expansion efforts underway in California and Utah. In Los Angeles County, researchers plan to begin fieldwork this fall to collect data and refine the tool’s predictive power. Earlier this year, HydroFlame’s real-time forecasts accurately flagged Altadena and Sierra Madre as at risk for mudflows after the Eaton Fire, offering a glimpse of its potential as an early-warning system.
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“For someone managing a trout fishery or drinking water supply, knowing when a stream might be overwhelmed with debris after a fire can mean the difference between preparedness and a crisis,” said Morgan Valliant, associate director of ecosystem services for Missoula Parks and Recreation in Montana and part of the project’s advisory group. “This tool could let us move from reacting to planning.”
Developed under Adnan Rajib, director of Hydrology & Hydroinformatics Innovation at the University of Texas at Arlington, HydroFlame is designed to anticipate fire-driven changes in water systems by integrating data from NASA satellite missions, including MODIS, Landsat, and SMAP. It incorporates a historical viewer mapping past fire impacts on streamflow and sediment, a scenario builder to simulate future fires, and a predictive tool capable of generating weekly forecasts.
“NASA is constantly pushing the boundaries when it comes to sensing and predicting fire,” Rajib said. “But there is still a huge gap when it comes to translating that fire information in terms of water. That’s where HydroFlame comes in.”
Unlike traditional models that treat each fire as an isolated event, HydroFlame considers compounding factors such as drought followed by flooding, providing a more holistic picture. It is also built for non-experts, offering a practical interface for watershed groups, city planners, and local officials to apply their knowledge directly.
HydroFlame’s developers are now collaborating with NASA JPL, the University of California, Merced, and Los Angeles County to install stream sensors and integrate new field data during California’s rainy season, moving toward a fully tested early-warning system.
