Ontario will miss 2030 emissions target as climate plan stalls, audit finds

Ontario remains in position to miss its legislated 2030 greenhouse gas emissions reduction target by a significant margin, according to a new provincial audit that raises concerns about outdated plans, optimistic projections and stalled policy action.

Ontario committed in 2018 to cut emissions 30% below 2005 levels by 2030. While Ontario has achieved a 22% reduction so far — driven largely by the phase-out of coal-fired electricity between 2005 and 2014 — the review found that the government is projected to fall short of its goal by at least 3.5 megatonnes. The gap may be even wider, with evidence suggesting emissions will be higher than the Ministry of the Environment, Conservation and Parks (MECP) has forecast.

“In addition, despite legislated requirements to prepare a climate change plan and publicly report on progress, no finalized plan exists, and MECP has not released a new progress report since 2021,” Auditor General Shelley Spence stated in her review.

The province also has no emissions reduction targets beyond 2030, she added.

In January 2025, MECP projected that Ontario would miss its 2030 target by 3.5 megatonnes, assuming full implementation of both provincial and federal climate initiatives. But the review found those assumptions overly optimistic, noting that projected emissions reductions are likely overstated in every major sector.

In response to the findings, Ontario Environment Minister Todd McCarthy told a press conference that his ministry will still endeavour to meet climate commitments related to the 2030 target.

“But targets are not outcomes. We believe in achievable outcomes, not unrealistic objectives,” said McCarthy.

The audit states that the ministry’s modelling includes federal policies that no longer exist, such as the consumer carbon tax and electric vehicle rebates. It also does not account for provincial decisions that could increase emissions, including the permanent reduction of fuel taxes and removal of certain road tolls — policies that could encourage higher use of gas-powered vehicles.

Projected reductions tied to industrial initiatives may not materialize as expected. For example, anticipated cuts from electrifying steel production are likely to be delayed. Ongoing trade disputes have also created economic uncertainty, potentially lowering industrial activity and emissions beyond what MECP anticipated.

The projection includes emissions reductions from the now-cancelled federal carbon tax and from energy efficiency standards that may weaken. Because Ontario’s standards are partly tied to those in the U.S., proposals to roll back efficiency requirements there could slow progress in Ontario. Meanwhile, provincial policies encouraging natural gas expansion may drive emissions higher, the review warns.

Despite a long-term upward trend in agricultural emissions, MECP assumes they will decline slightly — even though no mandatory programs exist to achieve reductions.

The waste sector forecast relies on Ontario meeting targets to cut and divert organic waste from landfills. But the review found “little to no progress” toward those commitments, including the province’s 2017 pledge to ban organics from landfills.

Future emissions from the electricity grid carry significant uncertainty. MECP assumes several major nuclear projects will be completed by 2030. Any delays could force greater reliance on natural gas generation, driving emissions higher. The projection also assumes rising electricity demand from industry and improvements in energy efficiency — both of which are uncertain given economic instability and proposed U.S. efficiency rollbacks.

Combined with outdated modelling and stalled reporting, the review warns that the province lacks a credible roadmap to guide future climate action.